Baker Hughes: U.S. Rig Count Rises for the First Time in Four Weeks
The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. — a key indicator of future hydrocarbon production — increased by 2 unitsin the week ending April 17, marking the first uptick in four weeks, according to Baker Hughes.
The total U.S. rig count now stands at 585, which is 34 fewer rigs than during the same period in 2024. The number of oil rigs rose by 1, while gas rigs also increased by 1, bringing the total number of active gas rigs to 98.
Both rigs were added in the Utica Shale, a region spanning parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. There are now 13 rigs operating in the Utica — the highest count since February 2024.
Longer-Term Trends
Over the past two years, the number of active oil and gas rigs in the U.S. has declined by 20% and 5%, respectively. The drop is largely attributed to prolonged declines in hydrocarbon prices, prompting operators to shift their focus from production growth to financial discipline, capital efficiency, and increased shareholder returns.
Despite forecasts of a third consecutive year of weak prices in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects production to grow — from 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 13.5 million bpd in 2025. However, this outlook has been downgraded compared to the EIA’s March report, due to increasing global economic uncertainty tied to the Trump administration’s new trade restrictions, which could dampen global energy demand.
Shale Plateau Ahead?
The EIA warns that the U.S. shale sector — which over the past 20 years transformed the country into a global oil leader — may be nearing its peak. Production is projected to reach 14 million bpd by 2027, holding steady until 2030 before entering a steep decline.
Shale output, specifically, is expected to rise to 10 million bpd in 2027 from an estimated 9.7 million bpd in 2025, but then fall to 9.3 million bpd by 2050. These figures raise questions about the feasibility of the Trump administration’s ambitions to further expand domestic energy production.
