Crude Oil Production in the United States of America Will Not Grow This Year in the Way That Donald Trump Wants
The United States of America remains the undisputed global leader in oil production, and experts surveyed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta do not doubt that the country’s production will continue to grow. However, it is unlikely that this growth will occur at the pace that the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, expects—or pretends to expect.
According to Valery Andrianov, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, there is no expectation of any explosive growth in oil production in the United States this year. In 2024, the country produced 13.21 million barrels per day. In 2025, according to forecasts by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), production may reach 13.61 million barrels per day, and in 2026, 13.76 million barrels per day. Thus, the projected growth for this year is approximately 400 thousand barrels per day. By comparison, during the previous year—under the restrictive measures implemented by former President Joseph Biden—growth amounted to 280 thousand barrels per day.
According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the supply growth from non-OPEC countries in 2025 is projected at 1.01 million barrels per day, with the United States of America expected to be the main driver of that increase. In other words, the expansion of oil production in the United States has already been factored into global market forecasts, and it is unlikely that this will cause any major disruptions, the expert believes.
A somewhat more optimistic outlook is offered by Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Despite ongoing market volatility, the United States continues to increase production, primarily due to the shale oil sector. In 2025, an increase of 500 to 700 thousand barrels per day is expected, with key contributing factors including investment activity in the sector, domestic price levels, and investor caution due to potential global demand slowdowns, he says.
A more reserved assessment comes from Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst at the Finam Financial Group. According to him, while the potential for growth in oil production in the United States is significant, it is not realizable under current oil price conditions, which is already being reflected in production statistics.
Valery Andrianov shares a similar view, emphasizing that price remains a key factor. A decline in oil prices—driven both by increased U.S. production and by a slowdown in global economic growth due to tariff wars—could render a significant portion of shale projects unprofitable. For most American shale companies, a price of no less than 65 United States dollars per barrel is necessary. By the end of 2025, prices may fall below this threshold.
Meanwhile, Konstantin Simonov, Head of the National Energy Security Fund, cautions against underestimating the ability of the United States to ramp up production.
“Right now, the Western media is full of narratives like: ‘Shale oil is dying; everything is collapsing.’ But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Everyone has tried to bury American shale, yet it’s still very much alive,” the expert says.
Shale oil production, Simonov emphasizes, is not only a technological process but also a product of American business culture. Although shale oil is present in many countries, only the United States has been able to extract it at industrial scale. There are many factors enabling American companies to remain flexible, including revolving credit systems, the ability to declare bankruptcy and restart operations, and the use of advanced technologies such as horizontal drilling, multi-stage hydraulic fracturing, and 3D reservoir modeling.
Simonov also notes that the United States still has several additional growth drivers, particularly deepwater oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico and projects in Alaska. Therefore, while production will continue to grow, sharp surges like those seen in previous years are unlikely.
Moreover, any increase in oil production in the United States works against the goals of the OPEC+ agreement, in which the Russian Federation is a participant. Thus, Simonov argues, Trump’s efforts to establish special regulatory conditions to stimulate new oil production are extremely important and should not be ignored.
