OPEC Expects Decrease in LH Production in Azerbaijan in 2024
Production of liquid hydrocarbons (LH) in non-OPEC countries in 2023 will increase by 1.5 million b/d compared to last year and will average 67.27 million b/d, while in the previous report an increase of 1.4 million b/d was forecast, to 67.14 million b/d, according to OPEC’s monthly report.
“Downward revisions of data for Canada, Azerbaijan and European OECD countries were more than offset by upward revisions in liquid hydrocarbon production in Russia and the United States,” Interfax-Azerbaijan notes with reference to the organization’s analysts.
Thus, the forecast for production in Russia has been increased by 100,000 bpd to 10.38 million bpd in 2023, while the forecast for 2024 has been retained.
U.S. production estimate increased by 50,000 b/d in 2023. If earlier it was assumed that the indicator would grow from 19.21 million b/d in 2022 to 20.29 million b/d, the new forecast assumes an increase from 19.23 million b/d to 20.36 million b/d (by 1.13 million b/d). In 2024, the US is expected to slow growth to 0.66 million b/d and increase production to 21.02 million b/d. Growth estimate downgraded by 20k b/d in 2024.
“The United States, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan, Guyana and China are expected to be the main growth drivers for 2023, while the decline in oil production is projected mainly in Russia. However, uncertainty remains associated with the potential for shale oil production in the United States and unscheduled maintenance for the remainder of the year,” the report said.
In 2024, the supply of liquid hydrocarbons in the OECD countries will increase next year by 0.9 million b/d, and in the non-OECD region, an increase of 0.4 million b/d is projected, experts say.
The United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan are expected to be the main drivers of growth in liquids supplies in 2024, with most of the increase expected to come from building on existing projects. At the same time, according to forecasts, the largest decline in production will occur in Mexico and Azerbaijan.
