OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, October 2021
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices rebounded m-o-m in September, gaining about 5%, supported by robust oil market fundamentals amid a slow restart of US oil production, further recovery of oil demand and a drop in inventories, along with easing COVID-19-related mobility restrictions in several Asian countries. Moreover, worries about natural gas and coal shortages in Europe and Asia boosted sentiment for higher oil demand. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $3.55 or 5.0% m-o-m in September to settle at $73.88/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), the ORB was up by $26.21, or 64.5%, to average $66.83/b compared with the same period last year. The ICE Brent front-month rose $4.37, or 6.2%, m-o-m in September to average $74.88/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $3.83, or 5.7%, m-o-m to average $71.54/b. Consequently, the Brent/WTI spread widened further in September to $3.34/b, its highest point since last April. The market structure of all three major oil benchmarks – Brent, WTI and Dubai – remained in backwardation. However, the Brent forward curve strengthened, while WTI and Dubai backwardation flattened slightly. Hedge funds and other money managers boosted bullish wagers in September as oil prices rose to…
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