Rystad Energy

The collateral damage on oil prices from last week is set to unwind further this week as Germany joins the chorus on calling for tighten restrictions while Europe grapples with a fourth wave of Covid-19 cases. If a new wave of lockdowns are enacted in Europe, oil prices will not …

Rystad Energy’s assessment of the COP26 summit consensus is that the last-minute compromises can be seen as overwhelmingly positive towards averting critical levels of global warming. Our data-driven forecasts model different climate scenarios and, up until the Glasgow Climate Pact, our research pointed to a likely outcome of 1.8°C. However, …

When the trajectory of the oil market’s supply tightness is being challenged by both the IEA and OPEC, it’s difficult for the trading mood to not turn bearish. Prices are falling on forecasts that the world may see oil surpluses again from as early as next month, if OPEC expectations …

In Europe, the suspension of Nord Stream 2’s certification process has let bullish momentum take hold again, resulting in higher TTF prices due to the evaporating expectations of any supply relief through this pipeline during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The Nord Stream 2 setback comes as temperatures in the northern hemisphere …

Rystad Energy’s annual cost of supply analysis has revealed that costs within the upstream sector have come down considerably in 2021, making new oil more competitive and significantly cheaper to produce. The average breakeven price for new oil projects has dropped to around $47 per barrel – down around 8% over …

In a tight supply environment oil prices can’t fall forever. Even though traders trimmed a few dollars last week and started Monday with caution, the short-term trajectory is still bullish for oil. Supply will grow more to meet demand as current prices provide the perfect environment for producers to increase …

The carnage on oil prices has spilled into this week as the market now seems to be less concerned about the current supply tightness, expecting it to be short-lived. Traders are instead refocusing on the return of two bearish factors – the possibility of more oil supply sources and more …

This week has been a good reminder for oil markets that prices are not only affected by the supply-demand trajectory, but also from monetary policy forecasts and by forms of government intervention. Although balances are tight, creating a bullish environment for oil through year-end, oil this week lost dollars in …

The oil bulls are licking their wounds following the $3 sell-off yesterday and they are trying to limit a further price cut today, as even though the US inventory report yesterday revealed that US commercial oil inventories drew by 1.2 million bpd last week, the market noted the largest SPR …

Even though oil prices are losing a few cents to the dollar today, the overall sentiment has lifted since yesterday and the market should see the forest for the trees, as overall market conditions remain bullish and – under the current oil supply status quo – oil valuation is on …