The US Department of Energy raised the forecast for oil production in the Russian Federation for 2023 to 9.9 million bpd
The US Department of Energy has adjusted the forecast for oil production in the Russian Federation for 2023, increasing it by 380 thousand b / d, to 9.87 million b / d, according to the monthly forecast of the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The forecast figure is 1.07 million b/d lower than the United States estimate of oil production in the Russian Federation in 2022. At the same time, a month earlier, the agency predicted a higher drop in oil production in Russia this year – to 9.49 million bpd.
EIA notes that the forecast has been adjusted due to the fact that Russian oil exports proved to be more resilient to the sanctions imposed on December 5 than expected. At the same time, the agency expects “more devastating consequences” for the oil industry of the Russian Federation after the introduction of similar restrictions for petroleum products.
“We assume that Russia will be able to redirect part of its oil exports, but we do not expect that new directions will be found for all exports of oil products due to the limited number of tankers. This will force Russian refiners to reduce oil consumption, which will eventually reduce its production,” – the report says.
As reported, on December 5, 2022, the ban on the purchase of Russian oil by the European Union and the G7 countries came into force, and from February 5, 2023, an embargo on the import of petroleum products. In addition, a ban on sea transportation of Russian oil and oil products came into effect at the same time if they are sold above the established price ceiling. For oil it has been set at $60/bbl, for oil products – at $100/bbl. for diesel fuel and gasoline, $45/barr. – for products with low added value (fuel oil, naphtha).
