USA Expects OPEC to Increase Oil Production Next Year
The US Department of Energy expects OPEC oil production to fall by 300 thousand barrels per day in 2023, however, if the current production cut in OPEC + ends, in 2024 the organization will be able to increase liquid hydrocarbon production by 600 thousand barrels per day, follows from the monthly short-term forecast of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy.
“Our projections are for total OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.3 million barrels per day in 2023, due in large part to the OPEC+ announcement of a production cut on April 3,” the report said.
The US Department of Energy notes that in addition to voluntary cuts, the decline in production will also be affected by recent disruptions in oil exports in Iraq, and force majeure circumstances that limit exports in Nigeria.
“We forecast total OPEC liquids production to increase by 0.6 million barrels per day in 2024 due to the end of the current OPEC+ production cut in 2023,” the ministry added.
OPEC+ countries will reduce oil production by two million barrels per day until the end of 2023 as part of the deal. At the same time, in April, a number of alliance member countries, including Saudi Arabia, announced that from May they would voluntarily reduce production in excess of quotas – by another 1.66 million barrels per day – also until the end of the year. Russia, in turn, extended the voluntary cut by 500,000 barrels per day that began in March for this period.
According to the attached materials of the ministry, OPEC oil production should be reduced in 2023 to 28.34 million barrels from 28.67 million last year. In 2024, the organization’s oil production is expected to reach 28.99 million barrels per day.
The OPEC+ deal involves 10 out of 13 OPEC countries. Only they reduce production in 2023 by 1.273 million barrels per day. Additional voluntary cuts were undertaken by such members of the organization as Saudi Arabia (500,000 bpd), Iraq (211,000), UAE (144,000), Kuwait (128,000), Algeria (48,000) and Gabon (8,000) . Of the non-OPEC countries, in addition to Russia, production from May to the end of 2023 is reduced by Kazakhstan (78 thousand) and Oman (40 thousand barrels).
